Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mauritius · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mauritius 2-3 Sri Lanka
Original prediction
Mauritius
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 49.4% | 40.5% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.5% | 27.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.78 | 25.1% | 32.2% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Mauritius
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Mauritius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MauritiusWDDLL
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Sri LankaLWWWD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MauritiusSri Lanka
100.0Attack75.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form75.0
97.0Power70.4
1.50xG1.38