Mauritaniavs
Central African Republic
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/24/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mauritania · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mauritania 3-1 Central African Republic
Original prediction
Mauritania
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 53.5% | 37.9% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.2% | 29.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.99 | 18.3% | 33.1% | 14.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Mauritania
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Mauritania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40