Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maua · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Mauaense are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Maua are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Maua hold a 4.2-point power-rating edge (49.0 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.5% in the Paulista Série B, while Maua holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maua
Probability
35.1%
Model confidence
14.5%
Maua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40