Matsumoto Yamagavs
Thespakusatsu Gunma
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Matsumoto Yamaga · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma
Original prediction
Matsumoto Yamaga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.1% | 50.5% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.6% | 27.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.3% | 22.2% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Projected Score
Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Matsumoto Yamaga
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Matsumoto Yamaga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20