Matsumoto Yamagavs
Shonan Bellmare
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Matsumoto Yamaga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matsumoto Yamaga 3-3 Shonan Bellmare
Original prediction
Matsumoto Yamaga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.82 | 32.2% | 36.5% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.2% | 28.1% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.6% | 35.4% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.11 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Matsumoto Yamaga
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Matsumoto Yamaga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00