Matsumoto Yamagavs
Sagamihara
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/13/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sagamihara · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matsumoto Yamaga 1-3 Sagamihara
Original prediction
Sagamihara
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.6% | 32.9% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.9% | 28.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 31.5% | 38.9% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Sagamihara
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Sagamihara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60