Matsumoto Yamagavs
Renofa Yamaguchi
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/25/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Renofa Yamaguchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 Renofa Yamaguchi, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Matsumoto Yamaga 0-2 Renofa Yamaguchi
Original prediction
Renofa Yamaguchi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 34.8% | 25.6% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.5% | 31.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 36.7% | 43.4% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Projected Score
Matsumoto Yamaga 0–0 Renofa Yamaguchi
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Renofa Yamaguchi
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Renofa Yamaguchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80