Matsumoto Yamagavs
Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osaka · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 Osaka
Original prediction
Osaka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 43.3% | 35.7% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.8% | 27.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 28.9% | 37.1% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Osaka
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Matsumoto YamagaDDLDW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
OsakaWDLDW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Matsumoto YamagaOsaka
41.7Attack58.3
50.0Defence58.3
25.0Form50.0
42.1Power57.4
1.24xG1.44