Matsumoto Yamagavs
Kagoshima United
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kagoshima United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Kagoshima United
Original prediction
Kagoshima United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 29.7% | 18.9% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 28.8% | 24.2% | -4.7 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 41.5% | 56.9% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Kagoshima United
Probability
56.9%
Model confidence
56.9%
Kagoshima United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40