Matsumoto Yamagavs
Gainare Tottori
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Matsumoto Yamaga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Gainare Tottori
Original prediction
Matsumoto Yamaga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 58.9% | 46.4% | -12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.6% | 27.2% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 5.15 | 17.4% | 26.4% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Matsumoto Yamaga
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Matsumoto Yamaga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40