Matsumoto Yamagavs
Albirex Niigata
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Albirex Niigata · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Albirex Niigata
Original prediction
Albirex Niigata
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 34.2% | 33.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 28.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 39.2% | 37.6% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Albirex Niigata
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Albirex Niigata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80