Matagalpavs
Walter Ferretti
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 10/15/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Walter Ferretti · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matagalpa 1-5 Walter Ferretti
Original prediction
Walter Ferretti
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 October 2026 at 13:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 34.6% | 23.4% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 23.2% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 37.9% | 53.5% | 15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Walter Ferretti
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Walter Ferretti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80