Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jalapa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Matagalpa are 1W-2D-0L in their last 3 (DWD), averaging 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Jalapa are 0W-1D-2L in their last 3 (DLL), averaging 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Jalapa hold a 22.6-point power-rating edge (11.2 v 33.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.2% in the Primera Division, while Jalapa holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Jalapa
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Jalapa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 1.33/1.00
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.67/2.67