Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Diriangén · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Matagalpa are 1W-1D-0L in their last 2 (WD), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Diriangén are 1W-1D-2L in their last 4 (LWDL), averaging 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Diriangén hold a 55.0-point power-rating edge (11.2 v 66.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.2% in the Primera Division, while Diriangén holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Diriangén
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Diriangén has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 1.50/1.00
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.75/1.25