Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahly · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Masr are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Al Ahly are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Al Ahly hold a 21.0-point power-rating edge (55.7 v 76.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the Premier League, while Al Ahly holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Al Ahly
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
14.2%
Al Ahly has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80