Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahly · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Masr 0-2 Al Ahly
Original prediction
Al Ahly
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.63 | 12.0% | 28.5% | 16.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.5% | 28.2% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 1.42 | 64.5% | 43.3% | -21.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Al Ahly
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Al Ahly has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MasrDDDDW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al AhlyWLWWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MasrAl Ahly
0.0Attack100.0
100.0Defence33.3
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power80.3
1.07xG1.14