Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pakhtakor · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Mash'al 0-2 Pakhtakor, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mash'al 1-2 Pakhtakor
Original prediction
Pakhtakor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 11.25 | 8.1% | 5.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.60 | 16.3% | 13.6% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.21 | 75.6% | 81.1% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Projected Score
Mash'al 0–2 Pakhtakor
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Pakhtakor
Probability
81.1%
Model confidence
81.1%
Pakhtakor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mash'alLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
PakhtakorDWWLD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Mash'alPakhtakor
15.9Attack58.7
33.3Defence69.8
6.3Form73.0
22.9Power69.2
0.42xG2.44