Martiniquevs
Honduras
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Honduras · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Martinique 2-1 Honduras
Original prediction
Honduras
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.95 | 23.3% | 29.9% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.0% | 26.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 48.8% | 43.6% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Honduras
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Honduras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80