Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Martinenc · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Martinenc 3-2 Montañesa
Original prediction
Martinenc
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.55 | 35.4% | 38.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 30.7% | 27.8% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 34.0% | 34.0% | 0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Martinenc
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Martinenc has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MartinencL
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/3.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
MontañesaL
GF 0 · GA 1 · avg 0.00/1.00
BTTS 0/1O2.5 0/1
MartinencMontañesa
66.7Attack0.0
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form0.0
23.7Power23.7
1.78xG1.56