Marítimo U23vs
Famalicão U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 10/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Famalicão U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marítimo U23 0-1 Famalicão U23
Original prediction
Famalicão U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.98 | 22.6% | 31.5% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.8% | 26.8% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.68 | 53.6% | 41.8% | -11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Famalicão U23
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Famalicão U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20