Marítimo U23vs
Benfica U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 9/25/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica U23 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marítimo U23 1-3 Benfica U23
Original prediction
Benfica U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.78 | 18.9% | 30.4% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.0% | 27.9% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 59.1% | 41.7% | -17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Benfica U23
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Benfica U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80