Marseillevs
Paris Saint Germain
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 9/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris Saint Germain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain
Original prediction
Paris Saint Germain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.33 | 15.0% | 33.1% | 18.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.09 | 18.7% | 24.2% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 66.3% | 42.6% | -23.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Paris Saint Germain
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Paris Saint Germain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40