Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marseille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marseille 2-3 Paris FC
Original prediction
Marseille
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 52.1% | 41.9% | -10.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.8% | 27.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.11 | 23.1% | 31.2% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Marseille
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Marseille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarseilleLWLWW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Paris FCWDLLD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MarseilleParis FC
66.7Attack50.0
66.7Defence100.0
50.0Form66.7
57.3Power71.2
1.46xG1.30