Marseillevs
Olympiakos Piraeus
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Olympiakos Piraeus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marseille 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus
Original prediction
Olympiakos Piraeus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 40.5% | 33.2% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.6% | 27.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 31.8% | 39.3% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Olympiakos Piraeus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80