Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marseille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marseille 4-3 Le Havre
Original prediction
Marseille
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 64.2% | 64.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.79 | 19.8% | 20.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 5.95 | 16.0% | 15.9% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Marseille
Probability
64.1%
Model confidence
64.1%
Marseille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarseilleLWLWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Le HavreLLWLD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MarseilleLe Havre
66.7Attack23.8
52.4Defence47.6
42.9Form9.5
52.5Power30.4
2.19xG0.83