Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marseille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Marseille are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Brighton are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Brighton hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (55.4 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the UEFA Europa League, while Marseille holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Marseille
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Marseille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40