Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Marseille are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Benfica are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Benfica hold a 14.0-point power-rating edge (55.4 v 69.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Benfica holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60