Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atalanta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Marseille are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Atalanta are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Atalanta hold a 16.2-point power-rating edge (55.4 v 71.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.0% in the UEFA Europa League, while Atalanta holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atalanta
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Atalanta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00