Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marseille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Marseille are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Ajax are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Marseille hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (55.4 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.3% in the UEFA Europa League, while Marseille holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Marseille
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
Marseille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00