Marsaxlokkvs
Zabbar St. Patrick
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marsaxlokk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marsaxlokk 2-1 Zabbar St. Patrick
Original prediction
Marsaxlokk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.4% | 55.2% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.4% | 24.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.29 | 21.2% | 20.7% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Marsaxlokk
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Marsaxlokk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00