Marsaxlokkvs
Mosta
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 9/5/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marsaxlokk · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marsaxlokk 1-1 Mosta
Original prediction
Marsaxlokk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.4% | 39.8% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.7% | 28.4% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 20.9% | 31.8% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Marsaxlokk
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Marsaxlokk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20