Marsaxlokkvs
Birkirkara
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marsaxlokk · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marsaxlokk 2-0 Birkirkara
Original prediction
Marsaxlokk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 34.4% | 38.7% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.9% | 27.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 37.7% | 33.9% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Marsaxlokk
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Marsaxlokk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20