Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marquense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marquense 1-1 Mixco
Original prediction
Marquense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.6% | 44.9% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.2% | 26.7% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.51 | 20.2% | 28.4% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Marquense
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Marquense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarquenseDWWLD
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MixcoDWLWL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MarquenseMixco
36.1Attack51.5
63.9Defence48.5
55.6Form48.5
54.2Power51.1
1.21xG1.00