Marquensevs
Malacateco
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 9/27/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marquense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marquense 1-0 Malacateco
Original prediction
Marquense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 01:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.5% | 39.1% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.4% | 29.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 26.1% | 31.2% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Marquense
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Marquense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00