Marquensevs
Antigua GFC
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marquense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marquense 2-1 Antigua GFC
Original prediction
Marquense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 01:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 46.2% | 40.1% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.2% | 29.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 25.6% | 30.8% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Marquense
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Marquense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00