Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maroons · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maroons 3-0 Lugazi
Original prediction
Maroons
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.0% | 41.6% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.3% | 29.6% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.51 | 19.8% | 28.9% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Maroons
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Maroons has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaroonsLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LugaziLWLWL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MaroonsLugazi
41.7Attack33.3
50.0Defence50.0
25.0Form50.0
40.3Power47.8
1.19xG1.00