Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maroons · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maroons 4-1 Kataka
Original prediction
Maroons
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 58.6% | 61.7% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.1% | 22.6% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 5.47 | 16.3% | 15.7% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Maroons
Probability
61.7%
Model confidence
61.7%
Maroons has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaroonsDWLLW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KatakaLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MaroonsKataka
50.0Attack16.7
61.1Defence27.8
38.9Form11.1
50.1Power22.0
1.95xG0.64