Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Marília are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (WL), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Sao Bento are 0W-1D-0L in their last 1 (D), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 3 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Marília hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 34.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.4% in the Copa Paulista, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.50/1.50
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/1.00