Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marko · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marko 1-0 Larisa
Original prediction
Marko
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.4% | 41.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.5% | 28.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 30.1% | 30.6% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Marko
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Marko has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarkoWWWLW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LarisaDWWDW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MarkoLarisa
73.3Attack60.0
66.7Defence80.0
100.0Form73.3
84.2Power71.4
1.32xG1.04