Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kifisia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marko 2-2 Kifisia
Original prediction
Kifisia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.47 | 26.5% | 31.2% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.8% | 28.0% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 43.6% | 40.7% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.08 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Kifisia
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Kifisia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarkoDLLLD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
KifisiaDWDLD
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MarkoKifisia
33.3Attack100.0
66.7Defence66.7
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power88.7
1.34xG1.62