Marinovs
Playas Sotavento
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · 10/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marino · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marino 6-1 Playas Sotavento
Original prediction
Marino
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 50.6% | 42.0% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.3% | 27.6% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.80 | 24.1% | 30.4% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Marino
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Marino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 7 · avg 0.00/3.50
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 1.50/1.50