Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maringá · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Maringá 0-0 Floresta, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Maringá 2-0 Floresta
Original prediction
Maringá
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.7% | 45.0% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.3% | 28.8% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 5.68 | 16.0% | 26.2% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Projected Score
Maringá 0–0 Floresta
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Maringá
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Maringá has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaringáDDWLW
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
FlorestaDDLWL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
MaringáFloresta
50.0Attack34.7
55.6Defence66.7
52.8Form48.6
53.7Power52.7
1.08xG0.84