Marinevs
Warrington Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marine · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marine 2-0 Warrington Town
Original prediction
Marine
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.8% | 39.0% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.8% | 27.4% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.05 | 22.5% | 33.6% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Marine
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Marine has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarineWWWLL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Warrington TownDWLWD
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
MarineWarrington Town
100.0Attack100.0
33.3Defence77.8
100.0Form77.8
80.3Power82.2
1.69xG1.88