Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Mans · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Marignane are 0W-0D-1L in their last 1 (L), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Le Mans are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Le Mans hold a 10.3-point power-rating edge (43.0 v 53.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.2% in the Ligue 3, while Le Mans holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Le Mans
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Le Mans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60