Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Turku PS · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mariehamn 0-1 Turku PS, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mariehamn 1-0 Turku PS
Original prediction
Turku PS
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 38.0% | 18.7% | -19.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.1% | 23.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 36.0% | 57.5% | 21.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.6 pts
Projected Score
Mariehamn 0–1 Turku PS
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Turku PS
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Turku PS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MariehamnLWWWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Turku PSDDDWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
MariehamnTurku PS
26.1Attack40.6
34.8Defence66.7
20.3Form46.4
29.9Power52.7
0.54xG1.55