VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga
Monday, 20 July 2026Last updated 10:05
Mariehamn

Mariehamn

Home
L
02
Full time
Lahti

Lahti

Away
WW
Wiklof Holding Arena
GoalVio prediction
50% confidence
Lahti(50%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Mariehamn
23%
Draw
27%
Lahti
50%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Mariehamn
73
Lahti
54
Defence
Mariehamn
1
Lahti
91
Momentum
Mariehamn
0
Lahti
100
Danger (xG)
Mariehamn
1.80
Lahti
1.35
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Mariehamn)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Lahti)
1.35
avg per match
xG against (Mariehamn)
3.60
avg per match
xG against (Lahti)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
MariehamnMariehamn
LLDW
LahtiLahti
WWDLW

Probability breakdown

50% confidence
Mariehamn23%
Draw27%
Lahti50%

Lahti leads with 50% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Mariehamn head into this in Veikkausliiga fixture at Wiklof Holding Arena in mixed form (L), while Lahti arrive in decent form (WW). Mariehamn have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Lahti over 2 games.

Tactically, Lahti hold the edge. Their decent attack (54/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Mariehamn defence (1/100), while Mariehamn's attack faces a watertight Lahti backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Mariehamn have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game at home. Lahti have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Mariehamn and Lahti in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Lahti to win with 50% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Mariehamn 2273%, Draw 2745%, Lahti 4982%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Mariehamn

Mariehamn

L
@ Gnistan
11 Jul 2026
24
L
vs Inter Turku
27 Jun 2026
02
D
vs KuPS
16 May 2026
11
W
vs PuiU Helsinki
13 May 2026
30
Lahti

Lahti

W
vs HJK Helsinki
11 Jul 2026
20
W
vs Gnistan
4 Jul 2026
10
D
@ AC Oulu
27 Jun 2026
11
L
@ Ilves
10 Jun 2026
25
W
vs MP
13 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Mariehamn vs Lahti?

GoalVio's model predicts Lahti to win with 50% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Mariehamn vs Lahti?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mariehamn vs Lahti?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more