Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilves · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mariehamn 1-1 Ilves
Original prediction
Ilves
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 32.3% | 27.3% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.7% | 27.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 42.0% | 45.5% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.60 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Ilves
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Ilves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MariehamnLWLWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
IlvesWWWWL
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MariehamnIlves
26.7Attack56.0
37.3Defence49.3
22.7Form45.3
31.6Power50.5
0.82xG2.04