Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mariehamn · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mariehamn 2-0 FF Jaro
Original prediction
Mariehamn
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.6% | 39.1% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.2% | 26.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 31.2% | 34.2% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Mariehamn
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Mariehamn has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MariehamnWWLLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FF JaroLLLLW
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MariehamnFF Jaro
23.8Attack28.6
31.7Defence33.3
17.5Form23.8
27.5Power31.2
1.14xG1.08