Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maribor · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maribor 1-1 Mura
Original prediction
Maribor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 65.0% | 57.5% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.36 | 20.9% | 23.7% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 6.49 | 14.1% | 18.8% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Maribor
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Maribor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MariborWWDWD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
MuraLLWLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MariborMura
63.9Attack0.0
70.4Defence66.7
64.8Form0.0
65.9Power23.7
2.13xG0.65