Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maribor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Maribor 1-0 Celje, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Maribor 0-0 Celje
Original prediction
Maribor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.5% | 56.8% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.9% | 24.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 31.6% | 18.5% | -13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.51 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.3 pts
Projected Score
Maribor 1–0 Celje
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Maribor
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Maribor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MariborWDDWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CeljeLWDLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MariborCelje
63.6Attack37.0
72.7Defence66.7
69.7Form51.9
69.6Power53.6
1.50xG0.55