Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maribor · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maribor 2-2 Aluminij
Original prediction
Maribor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 64.6% | 58.9% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 20.7% | 22.8% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 6.15 | 14.7% | 18.3% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Maribor
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
Maribor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MariborWDWWD
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AluminijWDLLW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MariborAluminij
63.9Attack0.0
70.4Defence33.3
64.8Form0.0
65.9Power15.3
2.32xG0.64